A Prophecy

Many experts are saying we could be facing this or worse for some period of time.  On one hand, no one can tell us when we will recover.  On the other hand, most say we will recover and move forward.  The existing crisis has called upon us to use tried and true solutions yet so far these do not seem to be turning the tide.
The goal of this entry is to share a powerful interpretation that sheds light on the current crisis we are facing.  The interpretation of historic events offered here is based on research done on generational constellations.  It is an interpretation of events that is gaining a lot of credibility based on the unfolding of recent events.  I plan another article to follow shortly here after that focuses on how to lead through this and what you can do to prepare.  I also want to say  – this is not about doom and gloom.  Ultimately, any crisis can lead to a great reawakening.  Yet, to ensure we successfully navigate the crisis will take stellar leadership, common focus and an abundance of determination.

Are We Facing a “Fourth Turning”?
In 1997, “The Fourth Turning – An American Prophecy” was released – authored by William Strauss and Neil

Howe ¹.  Strauss and Howe are/were visionaries (William Strauss passed away in December of 2007) – they use a blend of social science and history to interpret the qualitative nature of a generation’s collective personality to help managers and marketers leverage quantitative data in new and remarkable ways-and to lend order, meaning, and predictability to national trends.  Their book predicted that during the early 2000s the United States would enter what they called a “Fourth Turning.”  A “Fourth Turning” is a period of crisis they describe as a highly chaotic time that follows a third turning or a time of unraveling.

Strauss’ and Howe’s believe and their research seemed to indicate that we repeat four “turnings” every eighty years.   The authors’ hypotheses were based on generational research they did that indicated there are four categories of generations and that every twenty years one of these generational categories grows into power.   With each shift in power comes a new turning and highlights a whole array of global, social, political and economic ramifications.

The first turning is a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order becomes established after the old has been dismantled (e.g. the rebirth that happened just after WWII). Next comes an Awakening, a time of rebellion against the now-established order, when spiritual exploration becomes the norm (e.g. late 1960s and early 70s). Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era of strong individualism that surmounts increasingly fragmented institutions (e.g. our last occurred in the mid to late 1920s). Last comes the Fourth Turning, an era of upheaval, a Crisis in which society redefines its very nature and purpose (e.g. The Great Depression and World War II) .  Strauss and Howe looked at historical cycles and showed how history has repeated itself ².

At the time the book was published in 1997 we could not have guessed where we would be today yet if you look at some of the books predictions – you begin to consider their hypothesis has legs.  The rest of this entry will focus on their predictions and what more we might expect based on their theory

Moving from a Period of Unraveling into a “Fourth Turning”?

Let’s look at some of the scenarios that Strauss and Howe predicted would towards the end of the “unraveling” (third turning) into the Fourth Turning.  A time they said the US would be moving into around 2000.

First, they suggested that a catastrophic event would occur around 2005 that would shift the entire mood of the country.  They indicate this might come earlier or later – just like sometimes winter starts earlier or later.  When reading the book – I had no idea what that event could be.  After all we were in the optimistic phase of the Dot-Com bubble.  When 9/11 happened – I again reflected back on their book.  At the time of 9/11, the shift in mood in this country and the world after this was unmistakable.  We became more fearful, pessimistic and a sense of ambiguity began to grow.   Everything changed in that moment for Americans and the world.

The overall flavor of this shift between a time of unraveling and a Fourth Turning is a time when “Americans celebrate an ethos of frenetic and laissez-faire Individualism yet also fret over social fragmentation, epidemic violence and economic and technological change that seems to be accelerating beyond society’s ability to absorb it.”   Sound familiar?   Wait there is more.  Here are some more predictions from their book that seem to resonate in our time.

“American’s will achieve a stunning victory of a long-standing foreign threat. Yet, the victory comes to be associated with a worn-out definition of collective purpose-and perversely, unleashes a torrent of pessimism” (The last two periods of unravelings in the US included victories over Imperial Germany in WWI and Mexico during the Mexican-American War) ³.

Is Iraq our third turning empty victory?

“There will be an aggressive moralism darkened debate about the country’s future“. (historically these were expressed during the pre-revolutionary war period as those who supported and opposed the crown, prior to the civil war it was those who supported and opposed slavery) ⁴.

Is it possible that the “red state – blue state” battle that peaked during the 2000 and 2004 elections and the debate that is still raging between the conservatives and liberals is the debate of our third turning?  A recent sign of this chasm was Rush Limbaugh’s recent comments and I quote: “I hope he (President Obama) fails” Limbaugh explained that if Obama succeeds he will only forward the “liberal agenda”.

“During these times American’s feel firmly rooted in their values but newly hostile toward the corruption of civic life.  Unifying institutions, which had seemed secure for decades, now feel ephemeral. ⁵“

Is the fall of our financial system as well as the distrust of our governmental institutions driven by the reaction to partisanship a sign we are coming to the end of a third turning?

Other things the authors said would likely occur during the third turning Include:

• A rising gap between the wealthy and the poor.
• The growth of entrepreneurialism and an increasing distrust of corporations
• Rising birth rates in tandem with rising immigration.
• The generation born between 1983 and 2003 (The Millennial) – will be more civically minded, get more involved and will become a political force. This generation will be empowered and indulged.
• More people will start to crave simpler things and look to work from home more and more.
• “The 13er generation (born between 1961 and early eighties) will generate a low-sweat, task efficient work style that will be extremely good for U.S. profitability but once America acquires a whole generation of them, older managers won’t be so pleased. At this time, young workers will follow the contract – when it’s time to work, they will focus; but when it’s quitting time, they will disengage ⁶.”

I could go on here but I think you are getting the point.  These are very powerful data points and one’s that at least deserve our attention.  So, if we are to believe Strauss’ and Howe’s premise – the question is what should we expect for the fourth turning?

The Fourth Turning – What We Can Expect

“The Fourth Turning is history’s great discontinuity.  It ends one epoch and begins another ⁷”

Based on their work, the most recent Fourth Turning’s include:

• The Great Depression and World War II
• The Civil War
• The Revolutionary War

These times are ones when the entire state of the union or in fact the state of the world is in question.  Fourth Turnings:

• Force people to leave the comfort of individualism to make necessary sacrifices as well as join the greater cause (or their side of the cause).
• Places great burden on the younger generation. Like the WWII GIs, they are given the primary burden of getting us out of it. They are asked to step up and they fully embrace the responsibility.
• Call for total victory in war and there is tremendous investment as well as sacrifice to win at all costs.
• Increase the risk of civil and revolutionary war.
• Create new institutions that are much more sable than the one’s we experienced during the third turning.
• Increase people’s desire for conformity over self-expression
• Increase determination while the anxiety generated by the unraveling dissipates.

It is also important to point out that just because we have moved on to fresh beginnings following other fourth turnings – there is no guarantee of success.  It is possible that a society can fall and not recover.  It takes selfless leadership, sacrifice and a willingness to risk everything to get through the crisis.  Yet, there are no guarantees we will.

In conclusion, we have been told we are in a crisis the likes the current generation has not seen.  If you find the research and hypothesis that William Strauss and Neil Howe delivered in their book – you realize the potential challenges we may soon be facing.  If this prophecy does come to fruition – leadership will be a central key to help us learn lessons and build a great new society.  The question is are we ready?  In part two of this series I will highlight the kind of leadership necessary to face this crisis as well as share some thoughts on how we all can prepare for this scenario.

follow the Links Below for More Information:

Fourth Turning Blog – The authors started this blog in the late 90’s.  It provides insights from the book as well as interaction among fans of the book.

Interviews with Author Neil Howe – This link takes you to Part I of a four part interview with Neil Howe.

Mapping the Generations and Turnings -  This link takes you to an e-book written by Richard Seltzer who builds upon Howe’s and Strauss’s work and provides more detail around the generational constellations.

Tags: 2012 Predictions, American Crisis, Financial Crisis, Leading, The Fourth Turning

This entry was posted on Friday, January 30th, 2009 at 4:34 pm and is filed under Trends. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.